All the Surprises of IEM Cologne Major 2026: Who Collapsed and Who Shattered Expectations

IEM Cologne Major 2026 is still not over, but the tournament has already become one of the most unpredictable championships in recent years. Nearly every stage delivered unexpected results, while several favorites were eliminated long before the playoffs.

Liquid crashed out in the opening stage, Astralis fell apart after a promising start, and NAVI finished just a few rounds away from reaching the final stage. Let's break down the biggest surprises of the tournament and examine what caused some of Counter-Strike's most notable teams to fail.

"1. All the Surprises of IEM Cologne Major 2026: Who Collapsed and Who Shattered Expectations","1.1. Liquid – The Biggest Disappointment of Stage 1","1.2. NRG and One of the Most Painful Comebacks of the Tournament","1.3. HEROIC Became a Victim of the Format","1.4. Astralis: From a Strong Start to Total Collapse","1.5. GamerLegion Never Escaped a Brutal Bracket","1.6. NAVI Fell Just Short of the Playoffs","1.7. The MongolZ and Legacy: Victims of Circumstance","1.8. FUT Showed Potential but Lacked Experience","1.9. A Major That Refused to Follow Predictions"

Liquid – The Biggest Disappointment of Stage 1

While many early eliminations could still be explained by the level of competition or the nature of the Swiss system, Liquid's exit was a genuine disaster.

Losses to BetBoom and MIBR in best-of-one matches left some room for excuses. However, the decisive series against FlyQuest was played as a full best-of-three. This was where Liquid was expected to demonstrate its superior class and experience.

Instead, the North American side suffered a 0–2 defeat, winning only nine rounds across two maps. It is difficult to call such a result a fluke. The team looked unprepared both tactically and individually, and losing to an opponent many considered favorable became one of the tournament's biggest disappointments.

After a performance like this, discussions about roster changes seem completely justified.

NRG and One of the Most Painful Comebacks of the Tournament

NRG's elimination was equally dramatic.

The American squad was one victory away from advancing to Stage 2 and finished the first half of the deciding Mirage against BIG with a commanding 12:0 lead. Qualification appeared all but secured.

However, BIG won all twelve rounds after the side switch, forced overtime, and completed one of the most remarkable comebacks of the event. Losses like these often leave deeper scars than ordinary eliminations because the team had qualification firmly in its own hands.

For NRG, this match became a symbol of its entire tournament run – strong performances throughout the stage undone by one disastrous stretch.

HEROIC Became a Victim of the Format

HEROIC's elimination was surprising, but unlike Liquid's case, the format genuinely played a significant role.

The team began the tournament with two narrow best-of-one defeats against Sharks and Lynn Vision. Both matches ended 10:13 and 11:13 respectively. A few rounds going the other way could have completely changed HEROIC's tournament path.

Still, once they dropped into the lower part of the bracket, HEROIC had an opportunity to recover in a best-of-three series against Liquid. The European side lost 0–2 and exited the event.

The format made the road harder, but the final outcome was still decided on the server.

Astralis: From a Strong Start to Total Collapse

If there is one team that deserves the title of Stage 2's biggest disappointment, it is Astralis.

The tournament began perfectly for the Danish squad. They dismantled GamerLegion 13:4 and looked composed both individually and strategically.

Then everything unraveled.

Losses to 9z, TYLOO, and paiN followed in quick succession.

One of the most noticeable issues was the team's lack of resilience. Whenever a map stopped following Astralis' preferred script, the players seemed to lose control and increasingly relied on risky decisions without sufficient information.

The struggles of phzy also stood out. The AWPer finished the stage with a 0.74 rating, an extremely poor number for a player in his role. Still, blaming the entire collapse on one individual would be unfair. The bigger issue was the absence of structure and a reliable backup plan whenever things started going wrong.

GamerLegion Never Escaped a Brutal Bracket

A 0–3 record looks alarming, but GamerLegion should not be grouped together with teams that completely imploded.

The European squad faced an extremely difficult draw from the very beginning. First came Astralis, then a red-hot BetBoom lineup, and finally the talented and aggressive B8 roster.

Every match presented a major challenge, and GamerLegion never looked hopeless. Instead, this was a team that simply never received the opportunity to settle into the tournament and recover from an early setback.

NAVI Fell Just Short of the Playoffs

The most painful story of Stage 3 belonged to NAVI.

The team comfortably defeated Legacy and The MongolZ before finding itself on the verge of playoff qualification against Falcons. On the deciding Anubis, NAVI led 11:6. Only two rounds separated them from a playoff berth.

Falcons came back and stole the series.

NAVI later lost to G2 in the elimination match and finished the stage with a 2–3 record.

One of the key issues was the performance of makazze. The young rifler, expected to provide additional firepower, ended the stage with a rating of roughly 0.96. For a player capable of regularly winning critical duels, that simply was not enough.

At the same time, it would be unfair to label NAVI's run a complete failure. The team truly was only a few rounds away from reaching the playoffs and remained competitive throughout the tournament.

The MongolZ and Legacy: Victims of Circumstance

Some eliminations looked worse on paper than they actually were.

The MongolZ had to face a surging BetBoom roster, then NAVI, and eventually a 9z team playing some of its best Counter-Strike of the year. Dgt was particularly outstanding, posting a 1.76 rating and consistently creating openings for his team.

Legacy faced a similarly difficult road. The Brazilian side received one of the toughest draws of the entire tournament and repeatedly found itself facing teams expected to compete for playoff spots.

Neither team advanced, but their exits are far less concerning than those of several other high-profile organizations.

FUT Showed Potential but Lacked Experience

FUT arrived in Cologne as one of the tournament's most intriguing dark horses.

The young lineup repeatedly demonstrated impressive mechanical skill, but matches against elite opposition exposed issues with discipline and experience.

The team frequently took unnecessary early duels, often found itself playing from a man disadvantage, and repeatedly created difficult situations before the real round even began.

Despite the elimination, FUT left a positive impression. Most of its problems appear fixable, while the roster's potential remains undeniable.

XANTARES Reaches the Major Semifinals Through Pain

A Major That Refused to Follow Predictions

The biggest takeaway from the first three stages of IEM Cologne Major 2026 is that being a favorite guarantees nothing.

Liquid failed to survive the opening stage. Astralis collapsed after a dominant first victory. NAVI came within touching distance of the playoffs but still went home early. GamerLegion became a victim of an unforgiving bracket, while The MongolZ and Legacy repeatedly faced difficult opponents.

Cologne once again demonstrated that modern Counter-Strike is becoming less about famous names and more about consistency under pressure. The teams that survived were not only talented but also capable of maintaining structure after lost halves, painful comebacks, and difficult starts.

If the group stages have already produced this many surprises, the playoffs could become the most unpredictable part of the entire Major.

And perhaps the most chaotic as well.