Spirit vs Falcons Prediction - ESL Pro League Season 24

Spirit and Falcons will meet today in the ESL Pro League Season 24 quarterfinals. The match will be played as a Bo3 in a Single Elimination bracket: the winner will advance to the semifinals, while the losing team will be eliminated from the tournament.

Heading into the series, Spirit are ranked first in both the HLTV ranking and the VRS. Falcons enter the match in fifth place on HLTV and fourth in the VRS. However, the teams had very different paths through the group stage: Falcons finished the Swiss stage with a 3:1 record, while Spirit needed all five rounds to reach the playoffs.

On paper, Spirit remain the higher-rated team, but Falcons’ current form makes this quarterfinal far less straightforward.

"1. Spirit vs Falcons Prediction - ESL Pro League Season 24","1.1. How the Teams Reached the Playoffs","1.2. Spirit Lead the Head-to-Head in 2026","1.3. Current Form of Spirit and Falcons","1.4. Spirit and Falcons Map Pool","1.5. What the Veto Could Look Like","1.6. Key Matchups","1.7. Spirit vs Falcons Prediction"

How the Teams Reached the Playoffs

Falcons began ESL Pro League Season 24 with two convincing victories. They first defeated TYLOO 2:0 and then beat Aurora by the same score.

Falcons missed their first chance to secure a playoff spot against Vitality. They won Anubis 13:9, but lost Dust2 4:13 and then dropped the deciding Mirage. After that, Falcons faced NAVI and won 2:1, finishing the Swiss Stage with a 3:1 record.

Spirit had a much more difficult path. The team started with 2:1 victories over ShindeN and PARIVISION, but then suffered two consecutive defeats - 0:2 against MOUZ and 0:2 against 1win.

In the deciding match at 2:2, Spirit had no room for error. The team defeated M80 2:0, winning Dust2 13:6 and Cache 13:10 to claim the final playoff spot.

Spirit Lead the Head-to-Head in 2026

Spirit and Falcons have already faced each other five times in official series in 2026. Spirit hold a 3:2 advantage in matches and lead 8:4 in maps.

Falcons won their first series at IEM Rio 2:0. However, Spirit responded later at the same event with a 2:0 victory of their own.

Their next meeting came in the PGL Astana grand final, where Spirit swept their opponents 3:0. Falcons took revenge at the IEM Cologne Major, winning the semifinal 2:1 after taking Anubis 16:14 and Dust2 16:12.

The most recent matchup took place in September at BLAST Open Porto. Spirit won that semifinal 2:0 - 13:8 on Nuke and 13:11 on Ancient.

Overall, the recent head-to-head results favor Spirit, although Falcons have already shown that they can beat this opponent in an important Major playoff match.

Current Form of Spirit and Falcons

Falcons have looked more consistent at ESL Pro League Season 24. The team won three of its four series and lost only to Vitality.

One of the main threats remains Ilya "m0NESY" Osipov. Over the past three months, he has averaged a 1.36 rating, 0.85 kills per round, 78.1% KAST, and 83.3 ADR.

Spirit enter the quarterfinal with much less stable results. Back-to-back 0:2 defeats to MOUZ and 1win showed that the team is vulnerable despite holding first place in the world ranking.

At the same time, the biggest individual factor in the series remains Danil "donk" Kryshkovets. Over the past three months, he has posted a 1.40 rating, 0.92 kills per round, and 93.7 ADR. His multi-kill rating is also significantly higher than m0NESY’s - 1.46 compared to 1.21.

donk’s form could be one of the key factors for Spirit, especially after an inconsistent group stage.

Spirit and Falcons Map Pool

Statistics for the current lineups over the past three months show clear differences in their map pools:

• Cache: Falcons - 0 maps, Spirit - 56%

• Dust2: Falcons - 70%, Spirit - 73%

• Mirage: Falcons - 67%, Spirit - 44%

• Inferno: Falcons - 80%, Spirit - 0 maps

• Nuke: Falcons - 67%, Spirit - 67%

• Ancient: Falcons - 20%, Spirit - 90%

• Anubis: Falcons - 50%, Spirit - 86%

Spirit’s biggest advantages are on Ancient and Anubis. On Ancient, the team has won 90% of ten maps played, while Falcons sit at just 20%. The gap on Anubis is also significant - 86% compared to 50%.

Falcons look stronger on Mirage with 67% compared to Spirit’s 44%, while Inferno is another strong map for the team with an 80% win rate. The numbers are almost identical on Dust2, while both teams have around a 67% win rate on Nuke.

What the Veto Could Look Like

Falcons are likely to ban Cache, which their current lineup has not played in the past three months. Spirit’s most obvious ban is Inferno, where Falcons hold an 80% win rate.

For the picks, Ancient or Anubis look strongest for Spirit. They have a 90% win rate on Ancient compared to Falcons’ 20%, while Anubis favors Spirit 86% to 50%.

Falcons’ best option appears to be Mirage, where they lead 67% to 44%. Dust2 and Nuke are much more balanced and could remain as the deciding map.

The most likely veto scenario:

• Falcons ban Cache

• Spirit ban Inferno

• Spirit pick Ancient or Anubis

• Falcons pick Mirage

• Dust2 or Nuke remain as the decider

Overall, Spirit have the stronger statistical advantages on Ancient and Anubis, while Falcons will want to build the series around Mirage.

Key Matchups

donk against kyousuke could become the main rifle matchup of the series. Both players are capable of quickly changing the direction of a round through aggressive opening duels, although donk’s current individual numbers remain higher.

The duel between sh1ro and m0NESY will be just as important. AWP impact could be especially influential on Dust2 and on a potential deciding map, where long-range control becomes critical.

Another interesting matchup is tN1R against NiKo. If the biggest stars on both sides are contained, the secondary riflers could end up deciding the outcome of close rounds.

ESL Pro League Season 24 Quarterfinal Matchups Set

Spirit vs Falcons Prediction

Falcons have several serious advantages. The team had a more stable group stage, has very strong numbers on Ancient and Anubis, and has already proven this season that it can beat Spirit in elimination matches.

However, the head-to-head statistics still slightly tilt the balance in the other direction. Spirit have won three of their five series against Falcons in 2026 and comfortably took the most recent meeting 2:0. In addition, the team remains first in both the HLTV ranking and VRS, while donk enters the match with the strongest individual numbers among the main stars of both sides.

The losses to MOUZ and 1win make it difficult to call Spirit a clear favorite. However, the victory over M80 showed that the team managed to stop its losing streak before the playoffs.

Considering the map pool and current form, Falcons have enough tools to take at least one map. Still, Spirit’s head-to-head advantage, strong Mirage, and donk’s potential impact give the world’s No. 1 team a slight edge over a full Bo3.

Predicted score: Spirit 2:1 Falcons.