s1mple’s Chances to Reach the IEM Cologne Major Drop Below 4%, Liquid at 16.3%

Analyst Mischief has shared updated projections for European teams competing for a spot at the upcoming IEM Cologne Major. According to the latest calculations, several teams have seen their qualification chances change significantly following recent results at ESL Pro League Season 23.

One of the biggest talking points is the sharp drop in probability for BC.Game, the team featuring Oleksandr "s1mple" Kostyliev. According to Mischief’s model, their chances of reaching the Major are now below 4%. A similar situation applies to 100 Thieves, whose projected qualification chances have also fallen under the same mark.

On the other hand, several teams have improved their position in the race. Monte, Gentle Mates, and HEROIC have strengthened their chances after solid performances in recent matches. Their results helped them climb higher in the ranking projections and move closer to the invitation zone.

Team Liquid have also experienced a noticeable drop in their chances. After suffering two losses during the first stage of ESL Pro League Season 23, Liquid’s probability of qualifying for the Major has fallen to 16.3%. While this number is still significantly higher than that of many other contenders, the recent results have raised concerns about the team’s consistency.

Invitations to the IEM Cologne Major will be determined based on the Valve Regional Standings ranking as of April 6. On that date, the final ranking will decide which teams receive direct invites to one of the most prestigious tournaments of the year.

Europe has been allocated 17 slots at the tournament. Six teams will start from Stage 1, five teams will enter in Stage 2, and six teams will receive direct invitations to Stage 3.

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The coming weeks will therefore be crucial for many European teams. Every match and every ranking point can significantly impact the Valve standings and potentially determine which teams secure a spot at the IEM Cologne Major. For teams like BC.Game and Liquid, the remaining matches may be their final opportunity to improve their position and keep their Major hopes alive.